Geography and Human Relationships

Geography and Human Relationships

Future study of urban land use changes in Bostanabad County

Document Type : Original Article

Author
tabriz tabriz
10.22034/gahr.2025.508924.2408
Abstract
One of the most fundamental issues in sustainable urban development is the assessment and prediction of land use changes. Because it is directly related to social, economic, political and environmental changes. The crises and challenges in the changes in land use of the city at the present time are the most justified reason for futures studies, the goal of which is to discover the possible future, choose the best option and, if possible, its architecture. The purpose of the present study is to investigate and identify the effective factors in land use changes in Bostanabad County in the time horizon of 1403 to 1413 with a futures studies approach. The present research method is of an applied type and is based on the methods of normative-analytical futures studies in nature. In this regard, using the Delphi method, the factors affecting the future patterns of land use change in Bostanabad County were compiled and completed using the opinions of 25 experts and specialists in the fields of urban planning, economic, social and political sciences. After evaluation and averaging, they were analyzed using the Micmac software. During the analysis of 20 variables selected for research in the Micmac software, 14 variables were selected as key factors in the degree of direct and indirect impact. During the analysis, the most key factors in the future patterns of land changes in Bostanabad County were identified as the dominant economic role of the city, urbanization growth and government policies in the areas of welfare measures such as housing. Considering the analyses conducted, it was concluded that the status of the variables and factors affecting the future patterns of land use change in Bostanabad County are unstable.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 07 March 2025

  • Receive Date 26 February 2025
  • Accept Date 07 March 2025