Geography and Human Relationships

Geography and Human Relationships

Identifying future scenarios of the regional planning system in East Azerbaijan Province

Document Type : thesis

Authors
1 Associate professor Department of Urban and Regional Planning Faculty of Planning and Environmental Science University of Tabriz
2 Ph.D student in Department of Urban and Regional Planning Faculty of Planning and Environmental Science University of Tabriz
10.22034/gahr.2025.537323.2550
Abstract
The prevailing discourse in recent policies heavily relies on the dynamics of regional development. Examining the trends in regional development reveals that beyond existing developmental inequalities at the national level, the internal structure of regions has also followed a path that has generally led to unsustainable development. Despite logical and effective efforts, regional planning and development, and its position within the country's planning structure, remains a challenge requiring more comprehensive endeavors. Consequently, this research aims to identify future scenarios for the regional planning system in East Azerbaijan Province. Employing an applied methodology and a combined approach based on scenario writing, this study uses a descriptive-analytical method for data collection. To this end, 24 situations for 8 key factors were defined across three categories: desirable, intermediate, and undesirable. Experts evaluated the interactions between these situations using a matrix questionnaire. The responses obtained from this evaluation were analyzed using Scenario Wizard software, and the results are presented in a qualitative scale. The scenario "Widespread influence of short-term policies on the planning organization," contrasting with the assumption that "planning organizations are independent of short-term policies and formulate long-term and sustainable programs that lead to continuous and balanced development of various regions," is identified as the most probable future scenario with the highest degree of robustness. Following this, the scenario "non-utilization and non-exploitation of local capacities for local, regional, and national development," contrasting with the assumption of "full and proportionate exploitation of local capacities through supportive policies, which strengthens economic and social infrastructure and increases employment and welfare," is the second most probable scenario.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 03 August 2025

  • Receive Date 27 July 2025
  • Accept Date 03 August 2025