Geography and Human Relationships

Geography and Human Relationships

Strategic planning of livestock production in East Azarbaijan Province with a foresight approach

Document Type : thesis

Authors
1 PhD student in Agricultural Development, Aras, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Extension and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
3 Associate Professor in the Department of Rural Extension and Development at the University of Tabriz, Tabriz,Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Islamic Azad University
10.22034/gahr.2025.542809.2572
Abstract
Livestock production, as one of the key sectors of agriculture, plays a pivotal role in ensuring food security, creating employment, and sustaining rural livelihoods. In East Azerbaijan Province, due to the ancient culture of animal husbandry and specific climatic conditions, this sector has always been considered one of the economic pillars. However, challenges such as climate change, decreasing water resources, market fluctuations, weak industrial infrastructure, and lack of skilled labor threaten the sustainability and prosperity of this sector. In this regard, utilizing a foresight approach can provide a scientific basis for strategic planning by analyzing long-term trends and identifying key drivers. This research aims to identify key factors and develop compatible scenarios for the prosperity of livestock production in East Azerbaijan Province. The type of research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method with a futures approach. Data collection was carried out through document analysis and completion of questionnaires based on the interaction matrix by 34 experts (including professors, officials and experts in the fields of agriculture and animal husbandry) and the data were analyzed using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. Among the 45 initial variables, eight key drivers were identified through structural analysis and data rotation of 98%. Among them, "the impact of climate change on livestock and livestock products" had the greatest direct and indirect effect. Other drivers included access to financial services, fair pricing, preservation of genetic diversity, new technologies, and human resource skills. Finally, nine compatible scenarios were identified, of which two scenarios, "optimal growth" and "export-oriented", were most compatible with the sustainable development goals.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 06 September 2025

  • Receive Date 22 August 2025
  • Accept Date 06 September 2025