Geography and Human Relationships

Geography and Human Relationships

Analysis of Urban Development Uncertainties Using a Foresight and Spatial Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study: Khorramshahr City)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Majid Goodarzi 1
Zahra Soltani 2
Danial Lotfali Zadeh 3
1 Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
3 M.A. Graduate in Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
10.22034/gahr.2026.579563.2712
Abstract
Urban development in border cities and war-affected areas is confronted with high levels of structural, economic, social, and spatial uncertainties that cannot be adequately addressed through linear and short-term planning approaches. Khorramshahr, as one of the most significant border cities in southwestern Iran, has faced complex challenges in its urban development trajectory in recent decades, rooted in geopolitical conditions, economic transformations, infrastructural deficiencies, and environmental instabilities. The present study aims to analyze the key uncertainties influencing urban development in Khorramshahr and to formulate future spatial scenarios using a foresight-based approach supported by advanced statistical analyses. In terms of purpose, the research is applied, and methodologically it adopts a mixed quantitative–analytical design. Data were collected through a researcher-designed questionnaire with the participation of experts in urban geography, urban planning, and urban management. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS software and statistical techniques including Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The findings indicate that economic, institutional, and geopolitical uncertainties exert the greatest influence on the future spatial development of Khorramshahr. Based on the identified key driving forces, three spatial scenarios were developed: the Sustainable Port Development Scenario, the Continuation of the Status Quo Scenario, and the Spatial Decline Scenario. The results provide a scientific basis for strategic decision-making and urban development policymaking under conditions of uncertainty.
Keywords
Urban Development
Foresight
Spatial Scenario Planning
Khorramshahr

Subjects

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Geography and Human Relationships
Volume 9, Issue 1 - Serial Number 33
Winter 2026
Pages 551-569

  • Receive Date 28 February 2026
  • Revise Date 01 April 2026
  • Accept Date 02 May 2026