Geography and Human Relationships

Geography and Human Relationships

Identifying Key Drivers of Livestock Production Flourishing in East Azerbaijan Province

Document Type : thesis

Authors
1 PhD student in Agricultural Development, Aras, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Extension and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
3 Associate Professor in the Department of Rural Extension and Development at the University of Tabriz, Tabriz,Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Islamic Azad University
10.22034/gahr.2026.584307.2766
Abstract
Livestock, as living banks of agriculture, plays a crucial role in the rural economy, and the sustainable development of this sector necessitates scientific planning based on higher-level documents and macro policies. Utilizing future studies in formulating livestock breeding strategies is considered an effective approach to confront complex challenges and ensure the sustainability of this industry in the future outlook. The present research, in terms of purpose, is applied, and in terms of nature, is descriptive-analytical with a foresight approach. It examines the key factors affecting the future flourishing of livestock production in East Azerbaijan Province by employing tools based on epistemological and ontological assumptions. The research data were collected through documentary analysis and the completion of questionnaires based on the cross-impact matrix by 30 experts and analyzed using MICMAC software to investigate the direct and indirect relationships and effects among the variables. In this research, the structural analysis of 45 variables using the cross-impact matrix and data rotation of 98% led to the identification of 8 key drivers in the flourishing of livestock production. The variable "impact of climate change on livestock and livestock production" ranked first in terms of direct and indirect influence and had the largest share in the dynamics and changes of the system.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 06 June 2026

  • Receive Date 03 June 2026
  • Accept Date 06 June 2026