This study aims to analyze the economic, social, cultural, and psychological factors, alongside population governance, that influence childbearing intentions in the village of Mahmoudabad (Khodabandeh County), adopting a population governance framework. The research employs a mixed-methods design; the quantitative phase utilized a structured questionnaire administered to 230 households (determined via Cochran’s formula), while the qualitative phase involved semi-structured interviews with 15 local key informants. Findings from the multivariate regression analysis (R² = 0.62) indicate that economic factors (housing costs, education expenses, and job insecurity) and psychological factors (child-rearing concerns and attitudes toward the future) contribute most significantly to the reduction in childbearing intentions. Furthermore, the assessment of population governance across three dimensions—service implementation quality, institutional trust, and access to support policies—revealed that weaknesses in all three components hinder the translation of national policies into local-level behaviors. Thematic analysis in the qualitative phase further highlighted the roles of inadequate local service delivery, a lack of support policies, and a value shift from quantity to quality in child-rearing. The results suggest that the decline in fertility in this region is the result of a multi-level interaction between economic structures, social transformations, and weaknesses in population governance. Therefore, enhancing population governance at the local level necessitates strengthening economic infrastructure, increasing institutional trust, and addressing the psychological dimensions of families.