شناسایی و تشخیص روند خشکسالی کشاورزی با استفاده از شاخص‌های RDI و eRDI در یک اقلیم گرم و خشک

عشقی زاده, مسعود; اسماعیلیان, یاسر

doi:10.22034/gahr.2022.364978.1756

شناسایی و تشخیص روند خشکسالی کشاورزی با استفاده از شاخص‌های RDI و eRDI در یک اقلیم گرم و خشک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

مجتمع آموزش عالی گناباد

10.22034/gahr.2022.364978.1756

چکیده

در بین تنش‌ها و مخاطرات محیطی مختلف، خشکسالی به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین عامل محیطی شناخته می‌شود که چالش اصلی مناطق مختلف جهان و به‌خصوص ناحیه خاورمیانه می‌باشد که علاوه بر تأثیرات گسترده بر تولید و بهره‌وری محصولات کشاورزی، بر سایر ابعاد اجتماعی و اقتصادی کشورها اثرگذار است. بنابراین، آنالیز، پایش و شاخصه‌بندی خشکسالی از ضروریات اصلی مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی در زمینه خشکسالی می‌باشد. در این پژوهش، شاخص شناسایی خشکسالی (RDI) و نسخه بهبود یافته آن یعنی شاخص شناسایی خشکسالی مؤثر (eRDI) برای یک دوره آماری 59 ساله (2020-1961) به‌منظور شناسایی و بررسی روند خشکسالی کشاورزی در منطقه گناباد مورد مقایسه و ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج این تحقیق مشخص کرد بین شاخص‌های مورد آزمون در تعیین و پایش خشکسالی اختلاف معنی‌داری وجود نداشت، هرچند شاخص eRDI در مورد تعیین شدت خشکسالی در دوره‌های فصلی حساسیت و دقت بیشتری نشان داد. طولانی‌ترین دوره خشکسالی به مدت 9 سال از طریق شاخص eRDI FAO بدست آمد و طولانی‌ترین دوره ترسالی نیز توسط تمامی شاخص‌ها به مدت 11 سال محاسبه شد. همچنین، بیشترین فراوانی شرایط آب و هوایی مربوط به وضعیت نرمال (9/33 تا 39 درصد) بود. در مقیاس فصلی، طولانی‌ترین دوره خشکسالی و ترسالی در فصل بهار به ترتیب 8 و 6 سال محاسبه شد. تمامی شاخص‌ها شرایط ترسالی را برای تابستان تشخیص داده و اعداد مذکور برای فصل پاییز به ترتیب 7 و 6، و برای زمستان به ترتیب 9 و 7 سال بدست آمد. به‌طور کلی، هرچند شاخص eRDI به دلیل استفاده از بارش مؤثر بجای بارش تجمعی در شناسایی خشکسالی می‌تواند کارایی بهتری در تعیین و پایش خشکسالی کشاورزی داشته باشد، اما در این پژوهش تفاوت معنی‌داری در آنالیز خشکسالی کشاورزی بین دو شاخص مشاهده نشد و به همین علت به‌نظر می‌رسد می‌توان از شاخص RDI در پایش و تحلیل خشکسالی در مناطق اقلیمی مشابه با منطقه مورد مطالعه بهره برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

20.1001.1.26453851.1402.5.4.34.9

موضوعات

جغرافیای طبیعی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying agricultural drought trends using RDI and eRDI indices in a hot and dry climate

نویسندگان [English]

Masoud Eshghizadeh
Yaser Esmaeilian

University of Gonabad

چکیده [English]

Among the various environmental stresses and hazards, drought is recognized as the most important environmental factor, which is the main challenge in different parts of the world, especially in the Middle East, in addition to widespread effects on agricultural production and productivity, effects on the other social and economic dimensions of humans. Therefore, drought analysis, monitoring, and characterization are one of the main necessities of drought management and planning. In this study, the trend of agricultural drought in the Gonabad region was identified and evaluated by the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and its improved version, the effective Reconnaissance Drought Index (eRDI) for 59 years (1982-1920). The results showed that there was no significant difference between the indices, although the eRDI index was more sensitive and accurate in seasonal periods. The longest drought period was obtained for 9 years through the eRDI FAO index and the longest wet period was calculated for 11 years by all indices. Also, the highest frequency of weather conditions was related to the normal situation (33.9 to 39%). On a seasonal scale, the longest droughts and wet periods were calculated in spring for 8 and 6 years, respectively. These conditions were 7 and 6 years for autumn and 9 and 7 years for winter, respectively. All indicators identified wet conditions for the summer. In general, although the eRDI index can be more efficient in determining and monitoring the agricultural drought due to the use of effective precipitation instead of cumulative rainfall, in this study no significant difference was observed between the two indicators. Therefore, seems that the RDI index can be used in drought monitoring and analysis in climatic regions similar to the study area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Agricultural drought
Climate change
Effective precipitation
Evapotranspiration
Growth period

مراجع

- Al-Faraj, F.A., Scholz, M., & Tigkas, D. (2014). Sensitivity of surface runoff to drought and climate change: application for shared river basins. Water, 6(10), 3033–3048.

- Blum, A. (2005). Drought resistance, water-use efficiency, and yield potential-are they compatible, dissonant, or mutually exclusive? Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 56, 1159-1168.

- Bos, M.G., Kselik, R.A., Allen, R.G., & Molden, D. (2008). Water requirements for irrigation and the environment. Springer Publications. Netherlands, 174 p.

- Brouwer, C., & Heibloem, M. (1986), Irrigation water management: irrigation water needs. Training manual, No. 3. FAO. Rome.

- Byun, H.R., & Wilhite, D.A. (1999). Objective quantification of drought severity and duration. Journal of Climate, 12(9), 2747-2756.

- Dastane, N.G. (1978). Effective rainfall in irrigated agriculture. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper, No. 25. Rome. Italy.

-Dilley, M., Chen, R.S., Deichmann, U., Lerner-Lam, A.L. Arnold, M., Agew, J., Buys, P., Kjevstad, O., Lyon, B., & Yetman, G. (2005). Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. World Bank Publications, Washington, DC. World Bank.

- Döll, P., Fiedler, K., & Zhang, J. (2009). Global-scale analysis of river flow alterations due to water withdrawals and reservoirs. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 2413-2432.

- Ebrahimpour, M., Rahimi, J., Nikkhah, A., & Bazrafshan, J. (2015). Monitoring agricultural drought using the standardized effective precipitation index. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 141(1), 04014044-1-9. [In Persian]

- Eghtedar Nezhad, M., Bazrafshan, O., & Sadeghi Lari, A. (2017). Adaptive evaluation of SPI, RDI and SDI indices in analyzing the meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics (case study: Bam plain). Water and Soil Science, 26(4.2), 69-81. [In Persian]

- Godfray, H.C.J., Beddington, J.R., Crute, I.R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J.F., Pretty, J., Robinson, S., & Thomas, S.M. (2010). Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 327, 812-818.

- Hao, Z., & AghaKouchak, A. (2013). Multivariate standardized drought index: a parametric multi-index model. Advances in Water Resources, 57, 12-18.

- Hess, T. (2010). Estimating green water footprints in a temperate environment. Water, 2(3), 351-362.

- Howden, S.M., Soussana, J.F., Tubiello, N.T., Chhetri, N., Dunlop, M., & Meinke, H. (2007). Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(50), 19691-19696.

- IPCC. (2013). Summary for policy makers in climate change 2013: the Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M., (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge. United Kingdom and New York. NY. USA. 582 p.

- IPCC. (2014). Climate change 2014, synthesis report. 5th Assessment [Pachauri, R.K., Meyer, L., (eds.)]. Geneva. Switzerland. 151 p.

- Jensen, M.E., (2007), Beyond irrigation efficiency. Irrigation Science, 25(3), 233-245.

- Khalili, D., Farnoud, T., Jamshidi, H., Kamgar-Haghighi, A., & Zand-Parsa, S. (2011). Comparability analyses of the SPI and RDI meteorological drought indices in different climatic zones. Water Resources Management, 25, 1737-1757.

- Khedun, C.P., Chowdhary, H., Mishra, A.K., Giardino, J.R., & Singh, V.P. (2012). Water deficit duration and severity analysis based on runoff derived from Noah Land Surface Model. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 18(7), 817-833.

- Kogan F., (2018), Remote sensing for food security. Springer Publications. Switzerland. 255 p.

- Mahdavi, M. (2009). Applied Hydrology. Vol. 2, 6th Edition, University of Tehran Press, Tehran.

- Merabti, A., Meddi, M., Martins, D.S., & Pereira, L.S. (2017). Comparing SPI and RDI applied at local scale as influenced by climate. Water Resources Management, 32, 1071-1085.

- Meza, I., Hagenlocher, M., Naumann, G., Vogt, J., & Frischen, J. (2019). Drought vulnerability indicators for global-scale drought risk assessments, EUR 29824 EN, Publications Office of the European Union. Luxembourg.

- Mishra, A.K., & Singh, V.P. (2006). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391, 202-216.

- Nassiri, M., Koocheki, A., Kamali, G.A., & Shahandeh, H. (2006). Potential impact of climate change on rainfed wheat production in Iran. Achieves of Agronomy and Soil Sciences, 52, 113-124.

- Patwardhan, A.S., Nieber, J.L., & Johns, E.L. (1990). Effective rainfall estimation methods. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 116(2), 182-193.

- Sarabi, S., Heshmatpour, A., Komaki, B., & Tahmasebi, A. (2015). Relationship between MODIS vegetation indices and drought in northern rangelands of Golestan province. Iranian Journal of Range and Desert Research, 22(2), 392-405. [In Persian]

- Shokoohi, A. (2011). Comparison of SPI and RDI in drought analysis in lical scale with emohasizing on agricultural drought (Case study: Qazvin and Takestan). Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 3(4), 111-122. [In Persian]

- Shokoohi A., & Morovati, R. (2015). Basinwide comparison of RDI and SPI within an IWRM framework. Water Resources Management, 29(6):2011–2026.

- Sivakumar, M.V.K., Motha, R.P., Wilhite, D.A., & Wood, D.A. (2011). Agricultural drought indices. Proceedings of the WMO/UNISDR Expert Group Meeting on Agricultural Drought Indices, 2-4 June 2010, Murcia. Spain. Geneva. Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization. 197 p.

- Smith, M. (1992). CROPWAT-a computer program for irrigation planning and management. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 46. Rome. Italy.

- Soleimani motlagh, M., Soleimani sardo, M., & Davoodi, E. (2020). An early warning system for agricultural drought and groundwater storage depleation using eRDI index. Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering. 11(41):240-255. [In Persian]

- Stamm, G.G. (1967). Problems and procedures in determining water supply requirements for irrigation projects. In R. Hagan et al. (Eds) Irrigation of agricultural lands, American Society of Agronomy, Madison, WI., pp. 71–784.

- Tallaksen, L.M., & Van Lanen, H.A.J. (2004). Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. Developments in water science, 48, Elsevier. Amsterdam.

- Thomas, T., Jaiswal, R.K., Galkate, R.V., & Nayak, T.R. (2016). Reconnaissance drought index based evaluation of meteorological drought characteristics in Bundelkhand. Procedia Technology, 24, 23-30.

- Tian, Y., Y-P. Xu & Wang, G. (2018). Agricultural drought prediction using climate indices based on Support Vector Regression in Xiangjiang River basin. Science of the Total Environment, 622/623: 710–720.

- Tigkas, D. (2008). Drought characterisation and monitoring in regions of Greece, European Water, 23/24, 29-39.

- Tigkas, D., & Tsakiris, G. (2015). Early estimation of drought impacts on rainfed wheat yield in Mediterranean climate. Environmental Processes, 2(1), 97-114.

- Tigkas, D., Vangelis, H., & Tsakiris, G. (2016). Introducing a modified Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDIe) incorporating effective precipitation. Procedia Engineering, 162, 332-339.

- Tigkas, D., Vangelis, H., & Tsakiris, G. (2017). An enhanced effective reconnaissance drought index for the characterisation of agricultural drought. Environmental Processes, 4, 137-148.

- Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J., & Befort, B.L. (2011). Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108 (50), 20260-20264.

- Tsakiris, G., Nalbantis, I., Pangalou, D., Tigkas, D., & Vangelis, H. (2008). Drought meteorological monitoring network design for the reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Proceedings of the 1st International Conference “Drought Management: scientific and technological innovations”, 12-14 June, Zaragoza. Spain, 57-62.

- Tsakiris, G., Loukas, A., Pangalou, D., Vangelis, H., Tigkas, D., Rossi, G., & Cancelliere, A. (2007a). Drought characterization. In: Iglesias, A., Moneo, M., López-Francos A., (eds.), Drought Management Guidelines Technical Annex, Options Méditerranéennes, Series B, No. 58, Zaragoza. Spain, 85-102.

- Tsakiris, G., Pangalou, D., & Vangelis, H. (2007b). Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Water Resources Management, 21(5), 821-833.

- Tsakiris, G., & Vangelis, H. (2005). Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration. European Water, 9/10, 3-11.

- Tsakiris G., Vangelis, H., & Tigkas, D. (2010). Drought impacts on yield potential in rainfed agriculture. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Drought Management “Economics of Drought and Drought Preparedness in a Climate Change Context”, 4-6 March 2010, Istanbul. Turkey.

- UNDRR. (2019). Global assessment report on disaster risk peduction. Geneva. Switzerland.

- Vangelis, H., Tigkas, D., & Tsakiris, G. (2013). The effect of PET method on Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) calculation. Journal of Arid Environments, 88, 130-140.

- Vörösmarty, C.J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., & Lammers, R.B. (2000). Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science, 289, 284-288.

- Wada, Y., Van Beek, L.P.H., Wanders, N., & Bierkens, M.F.P. (2013). Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 1-14.

- Wilhite, D.A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions. Routledge. London. UK.

- Wilhite, D.A., & Buchanan-Smith, M. (2005). Drought as hazard: understanding the natural and social context. In: Wilhite, D.A., (eds.). Drought and water crises: science, technology and management issues. CRC Press, Boca Raton.

- Wilhite, D.A., Hayes, M.J., & Svodoba, M.D. (2000). Drought monitoring and assessment in the U.S. In: Voght, J.V., Somma, F., (eds.). Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwers, Dordrecht.

- Zarch, M.A.A., Malekinezhad, H., Mobin, M.H., Dastorani, M.T., & Kousari, M.R. (2011). Drought monitoring by reconnaissance drought index (RDI) in Iran. Water Resources Management, 25, 3485-3504.

- Zarch, M.A.A., Sivakumar, B., & Sharma, A. (2015). Droughts in a warming climate: a global assessment of standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Journal of Hydrology, 526: 183–195

- Zarei, A.R., Moghimi, M.M., & Bahrami, M. (2019). Comparison of reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and effective reconnaissance drought index (eRDI) to evaluate drought severity. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 5, 1345-1356.