نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Land use means the type of land use to meet human needs and is one of the most fundamental factors through which humans affect the environment. Therefore, examining land use and land cover changes is necessary not only to prevent them but also for management and planning. The present study was conducted with the aim of modeling land use/cover changes and their driving forces in the study area, which are detected and predicted by satellite images and geographic information systems. For this purpose, Landsat satellite imagery for 1990, 2010, and 2020 was prepared. Satellite images were examined for geometric and radiometric errors. In this way, six land use classes were identified in the study area and land use maps were prepared for the years under study. The results showed that land use changes occurred in an amount of 31,248.62 hectares over the past 30 years. Also, the study of the effect of physiographic and human factors using the logistic regression model indicated a direct relationship between land use changes and slope direction, while land use changes had an inverse relationship with the factors of slope percentage, altitude above sea level, distance from road, distance from residential areas, and distance from water sources. To predict land use changes in 2030 and 2040, the CA-Marco model, which is a combination of the autonomous cell model and the Markov chain, was used. The 2020 land use map was used to validate the model, and the kappa coefficient of 95.49 percent means the model's high ability to simulate future land use changes.
کلیدواژهها English