Urban agriculture refers to all agricultural activities including horticulture, crop cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture, and afforestation that take place within and around cities. While offering significant advantages, this type of agriculture also faces various challenges. Given the role of cities as focal points for achieving sustainable development, the production of high-quality food in the smallest possible space and shortest time becomes increasingly essential. Accordingly, the utilization of spaces such as rooftops and home gardens can not only help meet part of citizens’ food needs but also contribute to improving the urban environment. This study was conducted with the aim of futures studies on urban agriculture in the metropolis of Tabriz and analyzing the key influencing factors. The research method was descriptive–applied, and data were collected through questionnaires and literature review. Scenario development was carried out using the cross-impact matrix method with MICMAC software and scenario writing with Scenario Wizard. The statistical population included households, urban managers, experts, and local elites in Tabriz Findings indicated that the 50×50 matrix reflected the interactions among 50 factors with 99% accuracy, showing the system to be unstable, although a limited number of variables played central and highly influential roles. Six key drivers were identified: reducing urban food costs, utilizing vacant spaces, enhancing food supply sustainability, lowering food production costs, improving access to healthy food, and supporting local entrepreneurs. Consistent with global studies, these results highlight the importance of urban agriculture in strengthening food security, reducing poverty, and improving social welfare. Finally, three main scenarios (green, yellow, and red) were drawn for the future of urban agriculture in Tabriz, of which only four sub-scenarios demonstrated high consistency. This underscores the need to focus on operational scenarios and to integrate urban agriculture into comprehensive urban planning.