This study investigates land use dynamics in Khormabad County, analyzing changes over 25 years (2000-2025) and projecting future scenarios up to 2050. The research aims to understand the drivers of urban expansion and its environmental consequences.Utilizing a 25-year dataset, a time-series analysis was performed on six land use categories: agricultural, forest, vegetation, water bodies, barren land, and urban. A simple linear regression model was then applied to quantify trends and assess their statistical significance. These historical rates informed the projections for 2050.The time-series analysis revealed significant variations across land use types. Urban areas experienced the most substantial growth, increasing by 135 hectares annually (4.5%), expanding from 2986 to 6297 hectares. Conversely, forest cover faced a concerning decline of 45 hectares per year (11.2% of the total area over the period). Agricultural and pasture lands exhibited more fluctuating patterns.Statistical analysis confirmed that only the trends for forest decline (significant at P<0.01 with a slope of -44.7 ha/year) and urban expansion (significant at P<0.01 with a slope of +135.4 ha/year) were statistically significant. These represent the primary spatial forces shaping the region.Future projections indicate a continued urban expansion to 10110 hectares by 2050, an increase of 3813 hectares. Forested areas are projected to further diminish to 6071 hectares, with an annual loss of 49 hectares, posing serious environmental risks. An increase in pasture and barren land suggests a potential shift from less productive agriculture.The findings highlight the critical need for sustainable land management and conservation strategies in Khormabad to address the challenges of rapid urbanization and forest degradation.