Today, environmental protection has become one of the fundamental challenges of urban development, making attention to it a basic necessity. Moreover, in pursuit of economic, social, and industrial growth, humanity has exerted increasing pressure on the environment, placing its future at risk. Accordingly, strategic environmental planning can serve as an important tool for policymakers to identify potential environmental impacts and propose rational options to address them. The rapid development of Karaj in recent years has imposed multiple pressures on natural resources, the urban fabric, and the city’s governance system, underscoring the need for a rigorous scientific assessment of these consequences. This research is applied in purpose and descriptive–analytical in method and nature. Data were collected using a Likert-scale questionnaire, and the environmental impacts of urban development were assessed with the Iranian Leopold Matrix. To identify effective strategies and achieve sustainable urban development, the Meta-SWOT planning method was also employed. First, the environmental objectives of Karaj for the 1410 horizon (2031–2032) were identified and prioritized based on expert opinion. Then, Karaj’s resources, capabilities, and competitive position relative to other cities in the region were analyzed.The Meta-SWOT results indicate that Karaj ranks at a moderate level in some environmental and natural-resource indicators compared to its peers, while current urban development generally exerts negative effects on the environment. Weaknesses in management, technology, physical planning, and environmental protection are the main contributing factors. Therefore, achieving desirable conditions requires upgrading smart infrastructures, strengthening urban management, implementing effective pollution monitoring, and organizing physical urban development.