نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The purpose of this research was a foresight study of the "cultural transition's" impact on "population decline" in Iran. The central problem is the crisis of the fertility rate falling below the replacement level (1.6), which has profound security and economic consequences. Contrary to purely economic explanations, this research seeks the root of the problem in deep cultural transformations based on the "Second Demographic Transition" (SDT) theory. This research was conducted with a descriptive-analytical approach and foresight methodology (Cross-Impact Analysis). Data were collected using a matrix questionnaire from a panel of 29 experts and analyzed using Scenario Wizard software. This study sought to fill the "research gap" regarding the "future interaction" of these drivers and mapping consistent scenarios, moving beyond the "identification" of drivers (which was done in the literature). Among 729 possible configurations for the six key drivers, the analysis led to the identification of 23 scenarios with "high consistency" as probable futures. The key finding is that achieving a "fully desirable scenario" (in which all unfavorable cultural trends are reversed) is internally "inconsistent" due to the low robustness of some hypotheses (such as "countering the modernization of lifestyle" with a consistency value of -6). By filling the research gap, this study showed that policymakers must focus on robust scenarios instead of relying on ideal but inconsistent ones. Accordingly, two consistent scenarios with the highest robustness (consistency value of 0) are proposed for the ten-year horizon: 1) "Planning to counter the impact of modernization on attitudes and mitigate the challenges of the second transition" and 2) "Planning to prevent the destructive effects of individualism on marital attitudes." Focusing on these two consistent axes will guarantee the success of population policies. Futures Studies, Cultural Transition, Population Decline, Second Demographic Transition, Scenario Wizard.
کلیدواژهها English