.Contemporary cities face challenges such as population growth, increasing traffic congestion, air pollution, and pressure on urban infrastructure. The development of healthy cities requires innovative solutions, particularly in the field of transportation. Smart transportation, as one of the main components of a smart city, plays a significant role in improving citizens’ quality of life and enhancing the efficiency of urban transport systems. In this regard, identifying the drivers influencing healthy city development can provide a basis for effective planning and strategic decision-making in urban management. This study aims to conduct a futures-oriented analysis of healthy city development based on smart transportation drivers in District 7 of Karaj. In terms of purpose, the research is applied–developmental, and in terms of methodology it adopts a mixed approach with a qualitative orientation.



The study was conducted using the Delphi method and interviews with 50 experts selected based on criteria such as academic and professional experience and familiarity with regional issues. To identify and prioritize the drivers affecting healthy city development based on smart transportation and to examine the direct and indirect relationships among factors, MICMAC structural analysis was employed. In the first stage, 35 related factors were identified. Through the analysis of direct and indirect influences, 10 key factors were selected as the main driving forces. Among these, public libraries, recreational and sports facilities, air pollution, urban population density, and car ownership rate were identified as the most influential drivers.



The findings indicate that the future development of a healthy city largely depends on the management of cultural and recreational infrastructures, population distribution patterns, and the efficiency of smart transportation systems. Improving accessibility, reducing pressure on infrastructure, and enhancing urban sustainability can facilitate the transition toward healthy city development with a smart transportation approach.