Samarra, a historic and religious city in Iraq’s Salah al-Din Governorate, has experienced significant demographic, political, security, and physical transformations over the past two decades. This study examines land-cover changes and urban development in Samarra from 2000 to 2020 using Landsat satellite imagery, including TM and OLI/TIRS data. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) were used to assess temporal changes in vegetation and built-up surfaces, while the unsupervised K-means algorithm was applied to classify land-use patterns in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020.

The results indicate a substantial increase in mean NDVI, from −0.025 in 2000 to −0.001 in 2010 and 0.212 in 2020, whereas mean NDBI decreased from 0.0261 to 0.0132 and −0.0332, respectively. A strong inverse relationship between the two indices was confirmed by a Pearson correlation coefficient of −0.936 and an R² of 0.876 at the 0.01 significance level. However, land-use classification revealed an approximately 85% decline in green spaces and 74% reduction in agricultural lands, alongside a 64% increase in built-up areas. Residential land use was the dominant category, accounting for 43.37%.

These changes were associated with population growth, political and security instability after 2003, ISIS-related conflict, population displacement during 2014–2017, weak planning and regulatory control, and recurrent droughts. The decline in NDBI should not be interpreted solely as reduced urbanization or environmental improvement, as it also reflects wartime destruction and halted construction. The findings highlight the need to revise urban plans, protect remaining green spaces, and promote sustainable land management in Samarra.